A demographic and ministry shift is underway. Thousands of pastors are approaching retirement age, and few younger leaders are ready to take their place. The wave is coming, and every church will soon feel its impact.
An Actuarial Reality: The Aging of the Pastorate
It’s frustrating when someone says you’re too young, or too old. You can’t help your age. Frankly, you didn’t have any say as to the day or year of your birth. But here’s reality: pastors and church leaders are getting older. There’s nothing wrong with age; in fact, with it comes experience, wisdom, and perspective. But while many older pastors remain capable and energetic, the real challenge lies in the small pipeline of younger pastors behind them.
In 1992, the average pastor was in the prime of their career. Today, the typical pastor is nearing retirement. The median age of both pastors and churchgoers hovers around 60, meaning many churches are led by—and filled with—people in the same life stage.
The broader population tells a similar story. In 1970, the median age in the U.S. was 28; it’s now approaching 40. The total fertility rate is 1.62 children per woman, which is well below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. America has shifted from a young nation to a middle-aged nation, and the church reflects that same demographic reality.
The Coming Ministry Gap
For decades, churches have leaned on a model that assumes a steady flow of seminary graduates ready to fill pulpits. That pipeline is drying up. Meanwhile, many retirement-age pastors have limited financial options, keeping them in ministry longer, sometimes by necessity.
The result? A growing ministry gap. Churches want 32- to 52-year-old leaders who can reach multiple generations, but those leaders are increasingly rare. When pastors do retire, they often transition into part-time, interim, or revitalization roles. For many, their 60s and 70s can still be productive, fruitful ministry years, just in different forms than before. Rather than fearing this demographic shift, churches can prepare for it—and even thrive through it.
The Rise of Bi-Vocational and Co-Vocational Ministry
One of the most significant responses to this trend is the resurgence of bi-vocational and co-vocational models. Not only is the median age of pastors increasing, but the median size of churches is decreasing. Fewer churches can afford full-time compensation packages, and many pastors are discovering the benefits of combining ministry with work in the marketplace.
A bi-vocational pastor serves a church that can’t afford a full-time position. A co-vocational pastor, by contrast, chooses to work part-time in ministry and part-time elsewhere even though the church could pay more.
Both models are shaping the future of church leadership. Why? Because they offer unique advantages:
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- A marketplace role keeps pastors connected to the culture and engaged with unchurched people.
- Bi-vo and co-vo leaders are less likely to grow missionally stale.
- Church budgets become healthier and more flexible.
- Remote work options make it easier than ever to manage both vocations.
- These pastors often bring transferable skills from the marketplace that strengthen their leadership.
- Because their income isn’t entirely dependent on the church, they can lead with freedom and creativity.
As churches adapt, these models will not be exceptions. They will become the new norm.
The Opportunity for Interim Pastors
Another opportunity lies in intentional interim ministry. As more senior pastors retire, there will be far more open pulpits than trained candidates. Experienced pastors in their 60s and 70s can fill these gaps in deeply meaningful ways.
Serving as an interim pastor allows seasoned leaders to use their experience to expedite change and strengthen churches in transition. For denominational leaders, this reality presents both a challenge and an opportunity: to identify, train, and deploy these interim shepherds wisely.
Building a New Leadership Pipeline
If seminaries alone can’t meet the growing demand for pastors, churches and denominations must take the initiative to raise up leaders from within. Certification and training programs can play a vital role in this effort.
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- Build knowledge for practical ministry.
- Build excitement for calling and service.
- Build leaders who can step into new roles.
- Build sustainable models for ongoing leadership development.
The future health of the church depends on expanding this pipeline, not only through traditional education but also through church-based training and accessible online certification for bi-vocational and interim ministry. You can prepare for this trend through two of our popular certifications: Bi-Vocational Co-Vocational Certification and Interim Pastor Certification.
A Future Shaped by Flexibility
The problem of the aging pastorate won’t be solved quickly. But it can be managed wisely. Many older pastors are willing to give another five to fifteen years of service if churches create roles that align with their current season of life.
New staffing models will emerge:
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- Simultaneous pastoring, where multiple churches share competent leaders.
- Church mergers and adoptions, where healthy congregations help revitalize struggling ones.
- Smaller, multi-role staffs, supported by co-vocational workers.
These creative arrangements can multiply the impact of available leaders and extend the ministry life of seasoned pastors.
What Your Church Can Do Now
If your church wants to prepare for the coming wave of retirements, consider three proactive steps:
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- Evaluate your leadership pipeline. Who is next in line to lead? Who is being discipled and developed?
- Create flexibility in your staffing model. Be open to bi-vocational or shared positions, even if that’s new for your church.
- Honor and utilize experienced pastors. Don’t push them aside. Their wisdom can bridge your church to the next generation.
The next decade will bring massive change to the ministry landscape. However, churches that plan now will not only survive, but they will also thrive. The goal is not to resist the wave but to ride it faithfully, preparing leaders who serve with creativity, humility, and resilience.
A Word of Encouragement
This moment may feel uncertain, but it’s also filled with opportunity. God has always provided shepherds for His church. As one generation transitions, another will rise. The key is for today’s churches to equip, encourage, and empower them.
The future of ministry will look different, but it will be no less vital. The gospel remains the same, and the mission endures. Whether full-time or bi-vocational, young or old, every pastor has a role in God’s unfolding plan. The wave is coming. Let’s be ready for it.
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